OpenAI vs Google: ChatGPT Traffic Drops 21% as Gemini Gains Ground, Says Similarweb

ChatGPT, OpenAI’s flagship generative AI product, is showing signs of slowing momentum as Google’s Gemini continues to gain ground, according to new traffic data from Similarweb.

The data suggests a clear shift in user behaviour, with ChatGPT experiencing a sharp decline in visits while Gemini maintains steady growth and stronger engagement.

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ChatGPT Traffic Falls Sharply

Similarweb’s analysis shows that ChatGPT’s average daily visits dropped by 21–22% over a six-week period.

• Early December: ~203 million daily visits
• Early January: ~158 million daily visits

This marks one of the steepest short-term traffic declines since ChatGPT’s explosive rise in 2023.

In contrast, Google Gemini’s traffic remained relatively stable, averaging 55–60 million daily visits during the same period.

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Market Share Gap Is Narrowing

The traffic shift has translated into a noticeable change in global generative AI market share.

As of January 2, 2026:

• ChatGPT: ~64.5% market share

  • Down from ~68% in December 2025
  • Down sharply from ~86% in January 2025

• Gemini: ~21.5% market share

  • Up from just 5.7% a year ago

Other AI platforms remain smaller but are steadily gaining traction:

• DeepSeek: ~3.7%
• Grok: Just over 3%
• Perplexity: ~2%
• Claude: ~2%
• Microsoft Copilot: ~1.1%, largely flat year-on-year

While ChatGPT remains the clear leader, the data shows that its dominance is no longer overwhelming.

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Gemini Is Actively Eating Into ChatGPT’s Traffic

Similarweb estimates that Gemini is increasingly cannibalising ChatGPT usage.

• Early December: Gemini accounted for ~31–33% of ChatGPT’s displaced traffic
• Late December: That figure rose to ~39–40%

This suggests users exploring alternatives are increasingly choosing Gemini over other AI assistants.

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Engagement Metrics Tell a Different Story

Despite lower overall traffic, Gemini users appear more engaged than ChatGPT users.

Average session duration

• Gemini: 7 minutes 20 seconds
• ChatGPT: 6 minutes 32 seconds

Pages per visit

• Gemini: 4.3
• ChatGPT: 3.8

These metrics indicate deeper interactions on Gemini, possibly driven by tighter integration with Google Search, Workspace, and Android.

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What This Means for the AI Race

The data points to a shift from explosive growth to competitive maturity in the generative AI market.

• ChatGPT still dominates in absolute scale
• Gemini is closing the gap through ecosystem leverage and stronger engagement
• Smaller players are carving out niche but growing user bases

As the AI race intensifies, success is likely to depend less on raw traffic and more on retention, depth of use, and real-world utility.

The next phase of competition may be defined not by who attracts the most users—but by who keeps them coming back.

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Why This Matters

For OpenAI, the slowdown highlights the challenge of sustaining growth after early mass adoption.
For Google, Gemini’s rise validates its strategy of embedding AI deeply across its product ecosystem.

For users, increased competition could mean better products, faster innovation, and more choice in how AI assistants fit into daily work and life.

The AI assistant war is far from over—but it’s clearly entering a new, more competitive chapter.